MH370

There has been so much speculation about this disaster that I have been reluctant to add to the confusion. But there is one aspect of it that seemed so obvious that I assumed it must have been considered and discounted. Now, it seems the net is so full of weird opinions and theories that there is nowhere to have my concern appraised and either dismissed or considered further.

I don’t mind which it is, but this has gone on for so long that I would like it off my mind. So if anyone with any relevant skills or expertise can take care of it one way or the other, I will be grateful.

Flight MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing disappeared on 8th March 2014

These are diagrams of the known flight path.

The upper diagram is reprinted from Wikipedia, the lower is a screen shot from a presentation to Royal Aeronautical Society.

Listening to the presentation, it is not totally clear on the conversations between ATC and the flight.

But from taking angles off screenshots, it seems MH370 followed 025 across the Malaysian peninsula.

After that, formal contact was lost and various radar traces have been produced.

It is very difficult to extract actual course and heading information from the information available to me. Taking angles from a screenshot with a school protractor is not very precise.

BUT.

If something happened that either incapacitated the crew or damaged equipment, then the following becomes a possibility, admittedly remote.

  1. Flight controlling instruments are damaged and do not correctly process input data.
  2. Someone unfamiliar with the course input format tries to set the courses.

Unfamiliar with any of the equipment, it is my assumption that:

  • Entries for course should all be 3-digit entries, e.g. 001, 090, 244, etc.
  • If the lead 0 is omitted, the course entry is interpreted with a trailing 0. An entry of 24, is interpreted as 240.

Failure to observe this protocol will result in the following errors:

  • Highlighted is incorrect entry “20” for N 20 E, which gives the reciprocal course 200, S 20 W
  • Note: this error will only occur for entries up to 36, courses above 359 cannot be set:

As far as I can tell, given the limitations of extracting data and using the Wikipedia diagram the courses on the flight can be segmented as shown:

LEG:

AThis is the last correctly entered, or correctly processed, course input. At the end of this leg, comms are lost and something has happened which may affect the personnel or equipment.
BA course is entered for an intended heading of N24E. Because of either personnel or equipment failure, this is set as 240 and not 024. Because this is a commercial flight, no violent course changes are routinely made, the aircraft will turn very slowly and unobservant personnel may not be aware of the extent of the manoeuvre.
CFurther attempt is made to correct the course, bringing it slightly further “up” as perceived and
DThe original course setting is returned.
EAt the start of this leg, it is clear that the flight has crossed an unexpected coastline. An attempt is made to set a new course N 29 E , shown in green, which would take the flight back towards Vietnam/China/etc. the error gives a course of 290, W 20 N.

I have nothing further to add and I have no technical knowledge of either hardware, software or protocols on aircraft.

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